Tag Archives: supply

The future of Real Estate

Many people are wondering if Real Estate will bounce back.   Well the answer must be “OF COURSE”.

It is all supply and demand.  The run up in 2002-2005 was simply due to huge demand.  This demand was caused mostly by very cheap lending rates and how easy it was to get loans.  During this time millions of people purchased their first house.  Another factor was the reduction of the value of the dollar.  Something can go up in price while keeping a steady value when the value of the currency it is measured in falls.  This is also what happened in the 2000-2006 years.

So what caused prices to go down in 2007?  Well supply and demand again.  In many places developers were very excited about the prices going up so they ramped up production to record levels. (Increase supply) Next came a credit crunch, and the cheap money and the easy money left the system.  This made most people not able to qualify to get the house they wanted.  (Lower Demand).   To make matters worse many people felt they were at the top and that it would be a good time to sell so they listed their house for sale.  (Increase Supply).  Then in many places like Phoenix, there was a huge crackdown on illegal aliens.  Tens of thousands left their houses, many did not sell they simply just left.  Most were renters and left their lease, making the landlord have issues. (Reduced demand, increased supply).   Some people were used to the easy credit and have been living well beyond their means for years now, and when that stopped they could not pay their bills, and that included their house and they could not sell or refinance so they were foreclosed on.  (Lower demand for ownership, higher demand for rentals.  Higher supply of homes)   So with all of these things working together there was no reason for prices to not go down.

So where do we go from here, Well prices must go back up.  Builders stopped most building in mid 2007, and most places have many more people moving there than houses being built.  (Decrease Supply)  Well the credit crunch seems to be letting up, more deals are getting approved, mostly with government support.  (Increase Demand)  The lower prices are making people think twice about selling now, and many houses are coming off the market and turned into rentals.  (Lower supply for ownership, higher supply for rentals)  The illegal alien mess will not be resolved any time soon but most the people who are going to move already have.  The number of loans that have payments that reset soon is going down, also the government is making new rules to help these people keep their houses, which will result in less foreclosures.

In 1974 the median home price was 32,000.
In 1984 the median home price was 72,400 (a 126% gain in 10 years)
In 1994) the median home price was 107,200 (a 48% gain in 10 years or 235% in 20 years)
In 2004) the median home price was 185,200 (a 72% gain in 10 years or 478% gain in 30 years)

During this same time the size of houses increased from less than 900 square feet to well over 1700 on average.

So it is now a great time to invest, everything is on sale due to these supply/demand factors.  But where do you invest?

There are a few underlying economic facts to consider when picking the location of your investment.  First you want to be in a place that is growing, meaning more people are moving there than moving out.  Then you want to see how many vacant houses are on the market.   If you look at a city with 50,000 vacant houses but 10,000 people move there each month (These are the numbers for Phoenix) you can see that soon the houses will be full.   A city like Detroit is not good because people are leaving, there is no growth.  You need growth for demand, and demand vs supply sets the price of real estate.

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